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1. [es] - Interesantan Zadatak (The Monty Hall Problem)
icon Interesantan zadatak (The monty hall problem), 14.01.2004. u 1025. iconRe Interesantan zadatak (The monty hall problem), 14.01.2004. u 1059.
http://www.elitesecurity.org/tema/39695

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2. Monty Hall Problem Simulation
monty hall problem. At The question is Is is advantageous to switch,or does it not matter? This is the monty hall problem. The
http://www.u.arizona.edu/~vmiller/applets/montyhall/MontyHallProblem.php

Extractions: At the end of each episode of Let's Make a Deal , the host, Monty Hall, would give the player with the most winnings a chance to bet it all on a prize between one of three doors. The player guessed the door he or she thought the prize was behind. Then Monty would open one of the other doors behind which contained a goat or demolished car or something, showing that the prize is not behind that door. Then he gave the player a chance to switch his or her guess or stay with the original door. The question is "Is is advantageous to switch, or does it not matter?" This is the Monty Hall Problem. The answer is that the player should switch. The probability of staying and winning is 1/3, and the probability of switching and winning is 2/3. Try this applet that simulates the game to see for yourself. You may have gone on a winning/losing streak with the applet or you didn't play enough times to see that the probabilities converge to 2/3 for switching and 1/3 for staying. Below is a simulation in which one player always switches and one always stays. They each play 3 games per second so you'll be able to see the probabilities settle around their correct values.

The monty hall problem; Cleaner power causes cancer problem. InevitableIllusions. Grand Finale; The WWW Tackles The monty hall problem.
http://www-users.cs.york.ac.uk/~susan/cyc/p/prob.htm

Extractions: People seem to have very poor intuition about probability. It can take a lot of training to learn how to calculate probabilities correctly. Any probabilistic intuition by anyone not specifically tutored in probability calculus has a greater than 50 percent chance of being wrong. Piattelli-Palmarini. Inevitable Illusions You are on a Game Show, and there are three boxes in front of you. Your host, Monty Hall, tells you that one of the boxes contains a valuable prize, and that the other two are empty. He explains the rules: you get to choose a box, then he will open one of the remaining boxes to show it is empty, and then you will be offered the chance to change your choice to the remaining closed box, or stick with your original choice. You choose a box. Monty, who knows where the prize is, opens one of the other two boxes, as promised, and shows you that it is empty. Should you change, or stick? This problem causes massive debate whenever it is aired. Many people's intuition runs: "There are now two boxes, with an equal chance of holding the prize, so it makes no difference if I change or stick". However, the correct solution is "I had a one in three chance of getting the right box originally, so there is a two in three chance that the prize in in one of the other boxes. It's not in the one the host opened, so there is a two in three chance of it being in the other unopened box. I should change my choice and double my chances of winning."

4. Bricoleur: Webified Monty Hall Problem
January 30, 2003 Webified monty hall problem. A webified versionof the monty hall problem via anil dash s daily links. Posted
http://www.bricoleur.org/archives/000136.html

5. The Monte Hall Problem
Goto K. Related Bookmarks. For a great description of the Monte hallproblem, visit monty hall (Let s Make a Deal) problem. To see
http://math.rice.edu/~hemphill/Professional/Presentations/MonteHall/Monte.html

Extractions: The Rice University School Math Project Description of Problem Game Program (Montesim) Rapid Simulation (Monte) ... Related Bookmarks The infamous probabalistic conundrum that has come to be know as "The Monte Hall Problem" has its history in the game show Let's Make A Deal. Here is the infamous Monte Hall problem, as it appeared in Parade Magazine (September 1990): Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say number 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say number 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, ``Do you want to pick door number 2?'' Is it to yo ur advantage to switch your choice? Question #1: Does it matter if you change your mind? Question #2: What is the probabilty of winning if your remain with door number one? Quesiton #3: What is the probability of winning if your change your mind to door number two?

6. Education, Mathematics, Fun, Monty Hall Dilemma
Remark 2. SK.Stein in his book Strength in Numbers makes use of the monty HallDilemma to demonstrate a mathematician s approach to problem solving.
http://www.cut-the-knot.org/hall.shtml

7. Education, Mathematics, Fun, Monty Hall Dilemma
Includes the original question posed to Marylin vos Savant about the problem, a simulator, solutions and other information on the problem.
http://www.fortunecity.com/victorian/vangogh/111/9.htm

8. Monty Hall - Explanations Of Solution
Gives 4 explanations of the solution to this problem.
http://exploringdata.cqu.edu.au/montyexp.htm

Extractions: © Education Queensland, 1997 Monty Hall Puzzle - Explanations of the Solution One interesting aspect of this puzzle is that no one explanation seems to satisfy everybody. If you want to convince an entire class of skeptical students, you will need all of the solutions below, at least. Explanation 1 - my favourite The probability that the contestant chose the correct door initially is 1/3, since there are three doors each of which has an equal chance of concealing the prize. The probability that the door Monty Hall chooses conceals the prize is 0, since he never chooses the door that contains the prize. Since the sum of the three probabilities is 1, the probability that the prize is behind the other door is 1 - (1/3 + 0), which equals 2/3. Therefore the contestant will double the chance of winning by switching. Explanation 2 - looking at an extreme case Most people who get this puzzle wrong reason that after Monty reveals a losing door there are two doors left, one of which contains the prize, and therefore the probability of each concealing the prize is 1/2. This explanation dispels that line of reasoning. Imagine that there were a million doors. Monty knows which door conceals the prize, so he then opens 999 998 losing doors. You are now confronted with two doors, the one you chose initially and the one Monty has left. Do

9. Cheap Monty Hall
Fully HTMLbased simulator for the problem. All on one page.
http://www.utstat.toronto.edu/david/MH.html

10. Monty Hall
monty hall. It s that time in the semester when I have to teach probability.I like to start by driving people crazy with the Let s Make a Deal problem.

Extractions: Login Posted by John Marden , 2/28/00 at 1:46:25 PM. It's that time in the semester when I have to teach probability. I like to start by driving people crazy with the Let's Make a Deal problem. Here's the setup: There are three boxes, one which contains a New Car!!!! You pick one. Monty knows which one contains the car. He opens (one of the) empty ones. You get a choice of Which gives you a better chance of winning, keeping or trading? Or do they have the same chance, being as how there are only two boxes left? Some arguments . (The answer Try it out: Chance News' take on it. There are lots of other Websites on this problem, but I like the Car Talk guys' best (especially when you don't actually have to listen to them): The Ants are My Friend Trade . Try this to maybe convince yourself. In the applet, first decide what your strategy is, then pick a box. Then press the "Cheat" button. Now you can see whether you win or lose without playing out the game. If your strategy is to keep, under what circumstances do you win? If your strategy is to trade, under what circumstances do you win? That is, if you

11. The Straight Dope: On "Let's Make A Deal," You Pick Door #1. Monty Opens Door #2
To beat the dead horse of monty hall s gameshow problem Marilyn was wrong,and you were right the first time Eric Dynamic, Berkeley, California.
http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_189.html

12. Drei-Kasten-Problem  Drei-Türen-Problem  Monty-Hall-Problem  Gefangenenpr
Translate this page Drei-Kasten-problem  Gefangenenproblem  Drei-Türen-problem  monty-hall-problemSeit dem Calcul des Probabilités, 1889, von Bertrand taucht dieses
http://www.gavagai.de/themen/HHPT09.htm

13. The Monty Hall Page
Door 1 Door 2 Door 3 Behind one of these doors is a car. Behind the othertwo is a goat. Click on the door in which you think the car is behind.
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html

14. The Monty Hall Page
Play the Game. An Explanation of the game. Back Home Programs Documentation Internet People
http://euclid.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/Montytitle.html

15. Let S Make A Deal
hall is telling the contestant where the car is! How does this problemchange if monty hall does not know where the car is located?
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/montybg.html

Extractions: In order to explain why the numbers are suggesting that it is better to switch, it's necessary to describe how the game is played. If you have never seen Monty Hall's Let's Make A Deal game show, then let me catch you up to speed. Monty Hall I can only assume Monty Hall's game show Let's Make A Deal took place sometime during the seventies. Information on this particular game show has somehow eluded the internet and my less than vivid memory sometimes fails me, but the basic setup for the game is as follows. Pretty much the entire audience dresses up like a complete loon (Raggedy Ann and Andy were fairly popular costumes) hoping that Monty Hall would select them out of the crowd and offer them a chance to win a fabulous prize. For instance, he might offer you \$100 for every paper clip that you have in your posession or he might give you \$500, but then ask you if you would like to keep the money or trade it for what's in a particular box. Of course there could be \$1000 in the box or a single can of dog food. Anyway, I'm digressing and hopefully you get the basic gist of the game. The particular game that we are concerned with here is where Monty Hall offers you the opportunity to win what is behind one of three doors. Typically there was a really nice prize (ie. a car) behind one of the doors and a not-so-nice prize (ie. a goat) behind the other two. After selecting a door, Monty would then proceed to open one of the doors you didn't select. It is important to note here that Monty would NOT open the door that concealed the car. At this point, he would then ask you if you wanted to switch to the other door before revealing what you had won.

16. Monty Hall, 3 Doors
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/monty3/

You need to have a Java enabled browser to view this Java applet.If your browser supports Java, but you are seeing this mesasge
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/montynew/

18. Monty Hall Simulation
Please be patient while the program loads. If part of it disappears whilerunning, jiggle the window size. Close this window when you are done.
http://people.hofstra.edu/staff/steven_r_costenoble/MontyHall/MontyHallSim.html

19. The Let's Make A Deal Applet
clearly 2/3. Despite a very clear explanation of this paradox, moststudents have a difficulty understanding the problem. It is